ES and NQ Weekly Outlook, Nov 16 to 20: Support at 7,493 and 27,516 After the Rally Stalled

For the week of November 16 to 20, the December E-mini S&P 500 (ES) starts at 7,583.00 and the December E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ) at 28,034.75, after both rallied off their November 5 lows and then pulled back on Friday. Our primary scenario for each is a pullback that holds support, at 7,493 to 7,498.50 on ES and 27,516 to 27,531.75 on NQ, followed by another test of last week’s highs. A 4-hour close below 7,457 on ES or 27,256.75 on NQ would change that view and put the November 5 lows back in play.

This is Blueville’s weekly ES and NQ outlook: the structure, the levels and the two scenarios we are watching on each contract, built from the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts. It is market commentary, not a trade recommendation. Next Sunday’s outlook will start by grading these levels against what ES and NQ actually did, hits and misses alike.

How Last Week’s Levels Did

Last week’s outlook covered ES only, so this is an ES grade; NQ grading starts next Sunday. From the Sunday 6 p.m. ET open to the Friday close, ES traded between 7,385.50 (the first hour on Sunday evening) and 7,674.75 (Thursday, November 12) and finished at 7,583.00, up 181 points on the week. We count a level as held if price traded into it, or within 2 points, without a 4-hour close beyond it, and as broken if a 4-hour bar closed beyond it.

Level	What happened
Support 7,307 to 7,325	Not reached. The week’s low was 7,385.50.
Intraday base 7,351	Not reached.
Pivot 7,404 to 7,422	Held. ES dipped to 7,385.50 on Sunday evening but no 4-hour bar closed below 7,404, and price left the zone upward on Monday morning.
Resistance 7,485 to 7,535	Broke. The Monday 10 a.m. 4-hour bar closed at 7,574.50.
61.8% retracement 7,584.25	Broke. The 4-hour bar that opened Monday at 10 p.m. closed at 7,590.25, and ES went on to 7,674.75.
Downside levels 7,167.50 and 7,125.50	Not reached.

Scenario result: the primary relief rally played out. ES held above 7,322, closed above 7,422 on Sunday night and reached 7,485 to 7,535 on Monday, and the secondary scenario was cancelled on Monday afternoon when ES traded above 7,585. The miss was the ceiling. We expected sellers to defend 7,535 to 7,584, and they did not: ES closed above the whole band within a day and ran about 90 points past it. The bounce was stronger than our levels allowed for.

ES: Where It Stands

The big picture on ES has not changed much. The December contract’s chart shows a rally from 6,353.25 on March 31 to 7,897.50 on October 6 (the swing points before mid-September come from the front-month contract at the time), then a correction to 7,322.25 on the evening of November 5. Last week ES recovered 352.50 points of that 575.25-point decline, or 61.3%, before stalling. Friday’s drop to 7,519.25 gave back 44.1% of that rally, and ES closed the week at 7,583.00, between its 4-hour 50-period average (7,571.25) and its 21-period average (7,602.50).

The Elliott Wave Count

Elliott Wave labels are an interpretation, not a fact, so we lean on the price levels more than on the names. Here are the two readings we are weighing.

Primary count: five waves up from 7,322.25. The October decline ended as an A-B-C correction: (A) 7,897.50 to 7,648.50 (October 23), (B) up to 7,819.50 (October 28), and (C) down to 7,322.25. Wave C was 497.25 points, almost exactly twice wave A’s 249. The rally since then fits a five-wave advance:

• Wave 1: 7,322.25 to 7,469 (November 6), 146.75 points.
• Wave 2: down to 7,385.50 (Sunday, November 8), a 56.9% pullback that stayed above the start of wave 1.
• Wave 3: up to 7,600.50 (November 9), 215 points, the longest of the three.
• Wave 4: down to 7,493 (November 10), which stayed above wave 1’s high of 7,469, so there is no overlap.
• Wave 5: up to 7,671.50 on November 11 and a marginal new high at 7,674.75 on November 12, 181.75 points from the wave 4 low.

If that is right, Friday’s drop is the start of a larger second-wave pullback, and second waves often retrace 50% to 61.8%, which is 7,498.50 to 7,457. This count is invalid below 7,322.25.

Alternate count: the rally was a B-wave bounce. The rally stopped at 7,674.75, three points under the 61.8% retracement of the whole decline at 7,677.75, a common turning point for a counter-trend move. If the decline from 7,897.50 is only its first leg, a new leg down where C equals 0.618 times A would reach 7,319.25, close to the November 5 low. This count is invalid above 7,897.50, and we would drop it as our alternate on a 4-hour close above 7,677.75.

Momentum gives the alternate some support. On the 4-hour chart, the November 12 high at 7,674.75 came with a lower RSI(14) reading than the November 11 high (57.8 against 63.3) and a smaller MACD histogram (6.06 against 17.34), a mild bearish divergence. The 4-hour MACD line (9.03) crossed below its signal line (15.20) on Friday morning but is still above zero, and 4-hour RSI is 48.3. On the 1-hour chart, RSI fell to 30.5 on Friday morning and closed the week at 44.5, with MACD at -12.17, below its signal line at -10.32.

ES Support

Level	What it is
7,571.25	The 4-hour 50-period moving average
7,540 to 7,542	38.2% retracement of the rally from 7,322.25, and 38.2% of the decline from 7,897.50
7,519.25	Friday’s low
7,493 to 7,498.50	The November 10 swing low (wave 4) and the 50% retracement of the rally
7,457 to 7,469	The 61.8% retracement of the rally (7,457), 23.6% of the decline (7,458) and the November 6 high (7,469)
7,397.75	The 78.6% retracement of the rally
7,322.25	The November 5 low; the primary count is invalid below it

ES Resistance

Level	What it is
7,591.50 to 7,602.50	The week’s pivot: 23.6% retracement of the rally (7,591.50), 50% of the pullback from 7,674.75 (7,597) and the 4-hour 21-period average (7,602.50)
7,671.50 to 7,677.75	The November 11 and 12 highs and the 61.8% retracement of the decline
7,737 to 7,746.25	The November 4 lower high (7,746.25) and a 0.618 projection of the rally from Friday’s low (7,737)
7,774.50	The 78.6% retracement of the decline
7,897.50	The October 6 high

ES: Two Scenarios

Scenario	What would confirm it	Levels in play	What would cancel it
Pullback holds, highs retested (primary)	4-hour closes stay above 7,493 to 7,498.50, then a 4-hour close back above 7,602.50	7,671.50 to 7,677.75, then 7,737 to 7,746.25	A 4-hour close below 7,457
Lower high, decline resumes (secondary)	Bounces stall under 7,602.50 and a 4-hour bar closes below 7,493	7,457 to 7,469, then 7,397.75, then 7,319.25 to 7,322.25	A 4-hour close above 7,677.75

NQ: Where It Stands

NQ traced the same shape on a bigger scale. The December contract’s chart shows a rally from 22,961.50 on March 31 to 31,616.50 on October 6, then a decline to 26,366.50 on the evening of November 5. Last week NQ rallied from 26,751.25 early Monday to 28,697 on Wednesday, November 11, set a lower high of 28,652.25 on Thursday, and fell to 27,695.25 on Friday before closing at 28,034.75. That close sits between the 4-hour 50-period average (27,971.50) and the 21-period average (28,236.50).

The Elliott Wave Count

Primary count: five waves up from 26,366.50. The decline from the October high also reads as A-B-C: (A) 31,616.50 to 28,987 (October 23), (B) up to 30,178 (October 28), and (C) down to 26,366.50. On NQ, though, wave C was 1.45 times wave A, between the usual 1.272 and 1.618 ratios rather than on one, so we hold this low with a little less confidence than the ES low. The rally since then counts as five waves:

• Wave 1: 26,366.50 to 27,425 (November 6), 1,058.50 points.
• Wave 2: down to 26,751.25 (November 9), a 63.7% pullback.
• Wave 3: up to 28,129.25 (November 9), 1,378 points, the longest.
• Wave 4: down to 27,516 (November 10), above wave 1’s high of 27,425.
• Wave 5: up to 28,697 (November 11), 1,181 points.

Friday’s drop to 27,695.25 retraced 43.0% of the rally. A typical second-wave pullback of 50% to 61.8% points to 27,531.75 to 27,256.75. This count is invalid below 26,366.50.

Alternate count: a B-wave bounce. NQ’s rally recovered only 44.4% of its 5,250-point decline and stopped short of the 50% retracement at 28,991.50. If that was a counter-trend bounce, the decline from the October high is not finished. This count is invalid above 31,616.50, and we would drop it as our alternate on a move above 28,697.

On the 4-hour chart, NQ’s RSI(14) is 46.6, and the MACD line (54.79) crossed below its signal line (101.63) on Friday while staying above zero. The 1-hour RSI dropped to 29.5 on Friday morning and ended at 41.3, with 1-hour MACD at -96.74 against a signal of -78.50. Because NQ made a lower high on Thursday rather than a new high, there is no price-versus-RSI divergence to report.

NQ Support

Level	What it is
27,971.50	The 4-hour 50-period moving average
27,806.75	The 38.2% retracement of the rally from 26,366.50
27,695.25	Friday’s low
27,516 to 27,531.75	The November 10 swing low (wave 4) and the 50% retracement of the rally
27,256.75 to 27,289	The 61.8% retracement of the rally and the 50% retracement of the March 31 to October 6 advance
26,865.25	The 78.6% retracement of the rally
26,366.50	The November 5 low; the primary count is invalid below it

NQ Resistance

Level	What it is
28,196 to 28,236.50	The week’s pivot: 50% of the pullback from 28,697 (28,196) and the 4-hour 21-period average (28,236.50)
28,372	The 38.2% retracement of the decline from 31,616.50
28,652.25 to 28,697	The November 11 high and Thursday’s lower high
28,969 to 28,991.50	The November 4 lower high and the 50% retracement of the decline
29,611	The 61.8% retracement of the decline

NQ: Two Scenarios

Scenario	What would confirm it	Levels in play	What would cancel it
Pullback holds, highs retested (primary)	4-hour closes stay above 27,516 to 27,531.75, then a 4-hour close back above 28,236.50	28,652.25 to 28,697, then 28,969 to 28,991.50	A 4-hour close below 27,256.75
Lower high, decline resumes (secondary)	Bounces stall under 28,236.50 and a 4-hour bar closes below 27,516	27,256.75 to 27,289, then 26,865.25, then 26,366.50	A move above 28,697

ES versus NQ: NQ is lagging. ES recovered 61.3% of its October-to-November decline and made a marginal new rally high on Thursday, while NQ recovered only 44.4% of its own decline and put in a lower high the same day. NQ did gain more on the week in percentage terms (3.5% against 2.4% for ES), so the gap is about how much ground each has made back, and a break of the pivots on NQ before ES would be the first sign the secondary scenario is taking over.

Event Risk This Week

The calendar is lighter than last week’s CPI week, but several scheduled releases can move both contracts quickly:

• Tuesday, November 17, 8:30 a.m. ET: October advance retail sales, per the Census Bureau release schedule. Industrial production follows at 9:15 a.m., per the Federal Reserve calendar.
• Wednesday, November 18, 2:00 p.m. ET: minutes of the October 27 to 28 FOMC meeting, per the Federal Reserve calendar. The next FOMC meeting is December 8 to 9, per the FOMC meeting calendar.
• Fed speakers: the Fed calendar lists remarks by the Chair on Monday at 12:00 p.m., and appearances by Board members on Tuesday at 9:10 a.m., Thursday at 9:25 a.m. and Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET.
• Holidays: no US market holiday falls this week. Thanksgiving is the following Thursday, November 26; check the CME Group holiday calendar for that week’s Globex hours.

Retail sales lands in the middle of the overnight-to-morning handoff, when liquidity is thinner. Our guide on how CPI and jobs reports move ES and NQ futures covers what tends to happen around scheduled data, and the same ideas apply here.

How to Use These Levels

Treat each level as a zone, not a line. Watch how price behaves when it gets there: a quick rejection says something different from a slow grind through. Last week was a good reminder: the 7,535 to 7,584 band on ES looked strong on paper and gave way within a day. Since both contracts trade nearly around the clock, some of these tests may come overnight; our guide to trading the ES and NQ overnight session covers what changes after the cash close.

Keep the size of each contract in mind. One ES point is $50 per contract ($5 on MES), and one NQ point is $20 ($2 on MNQ), as our futures tick value guide explains. The distance between NQ levels is far larger in points than on ES, so the same number of points of room means very different dollar risk. The futures position size calculator shows how many contracts fit a given stop distance and risk budget.

FAQs

Why cover NQ alongside ES?

The two often move together, but not always by the same amount. Reading them side by side shows whether a move is broad or led by large technology stocks. This week, NQ has made back less of its decline than ES, which we treat as a yellow flag for the bounce.

Why are the NQ levels not just the ES levels scaled up?

Each contract has its own swing highs and lows, so its Fibonacci levels and wave count are measured from its own chart. NQ’s October correction, for example, ended at a different ratio of wave A than ES’s did.

What is a 4-hour close, and why do we use it?

We build 4-hour bars starting at the 6 p.m. ET session open. A close beyond a level on that timeframe filters out brief spikes that reverse within minutes, which is why we use it to decide whether a level held or broke.

How did last week’s outlook do?

The primary scenario, a relief rally while 7,322 held, played out. The resistance band at 7,535 to 7,584 did not hold, and ES ran about 90 points beyond it. The full grade is in the table near the top of this article.

Conclusion

ES and NQ start the week in the middle of their ranges after a strong rally and a Friday pullback. In our primary view, both are working through a second-wave pullback that holds 7,493 to 7,498.50 on ES and 27,516 to 27,531.75 on NQ before another test of 7,671.50 to 7,677.75 and 28,652.25 to 28,697. A 4-hour close below 7,457 on ES or 27,256.75 on NQ would shift the focus back toward the November 5 lows. Retail sales on Tuesday and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday are the scheduled risks, and NQ’s weaker recovery is the detail we are watching most closely.

To trade these sessions with live alerts, setup reviews and text support during the overnight and morning sessions, see the Futures Add-On on our Services page.

Educational market commentary only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Levels are from the December E-mini S&P 500 and E-mini Nasdaq-100 contracts, with swing points before September taken from the front-month contract at the time, and may differ slightly on other data feeds. Blueville Capital LLC is not a registered broker or financial advisor.