Research
How far 0DTE index options ran after every alert
We took every intraday SPX, SPY, QQQ and RUT option alert from our trading room, January 2, 2026 to October 30, 2026, misses included, and measured how far each option ran after the alert.
Recorded performance data is strictly educational and shows the alert price versus the max return reached. “Profitable” means the price rose above the alert price at some point after the alert, not that a trade was closed at a profit. These are hypothetical results, not realized profits of any account. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- Alerts studied
- 2,881
- 2,880 expired the day they were sent
- Rose above the alert price
- 97%
- 2,790 of 2,881; 91 never did
- Median best move
- +85%
- Alert price to the highest price after it
- Doubled at some point
- 47%
- 1,343 reached +100% or more
Updated nightly from the index lottos track record. Data through .
What we measured
Each alert gives an option and the price it was alerted at. For every one, we took the highest price the option traded at afterwards and compared the two. For 755 alerts that is the high posted in our Slack room, which records a result once an alert reaches +100%. For the other 2,126, it is the highest traded price in 1-minute market data, from the first full minute after the alert to the close on the day the option expired.
That makes this a measure of how far each option ran, not of what anyone made. Nobody sells every trade at its high, and a stop or a time limit can take a trader out long before it. Treat every figure below as the best case after the alert, and the share that never rose at all as the worst.
How far the alerts ran
Share of the 2,881 alerts by their best move after the alert. Hover or focus a bar for the count.
- Never above the alert price3%
- Up to +25%16%
- +25% to +50%17%
- +50% to +100%19%
- +100% to +200%17%
- +200% to +500%15%
- Over +500%12%
| Best move | Alerts | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Never above the alert price | 91 | 3% |
| Up to +25% | 474 | 16% |
| +25% to +50% | 476 | 17% |
| +50% to +100% | 534 | 19% |
| +100% to +200% | 504 | 17% |
| +200% to +500% | 445 | 15% |
| Over +500% | 357 | 12% |
The spread is wide. The median alert ran +85%, but 36% never got past +50% and 3% never traded above the alert price at all. The average best move, +291%, is pulled far above the median by a small number of very large runs, which is why we lead with the median.
How often a profit target was reached
A sell order at a fixed target fills only if the option trades there. This table shows how many alerts traded at or above each target at some point after the alert. The higher the target, the less often price got there.
It says nothing about what came first. An option that reached +100% may have fallen far enough to hit a stop on the way, so these shares are not the results of a target-and-stop plan, and real fills on cheap, fast options often come in below the printed high.
| Traded at or above | Alerts | Share |
|---|---|---|
| +25% | 2,360 | 82% |
| +50% | 1,896 | 66% |
| +100% | 1,343 | 47% |
| +200% | 825 | 29% |
| +500% | 367 | 13% |
By time of day
Alert times are Eastern. Every alert here is a same-day option, so a later alert has less time left to run.
| Alert time | Alerts | Rose above alert price | Median best move | Reached +100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 10:00 a.m. | 597 | 96% | +77% | 44% |
| 10:00 – 10:59 | 372 | 99% | +92% | 49% |
| 11:00 – 11:59 | 253 | 98% | +78% | 45% |
| 12:00 – 12:59 p.m. | 222 | 99% | +89% | 48% |
| 1:00 – 1:59 | 250 | 98% | +83% | 46% |
| 2:00 – 2:59 | 634 | 95% | +90% | 48% |
| 3:00 p.m. and later | 553 | 95% | +88% | 47% |
By underlying
SPX is the index itself; SPY and QQQ are ETFs on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100; RUT is the Russell 2000 index.
| Underlying | Alerts | Rose above alert price | Median best move | Reached +100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 1,303 | 98% | +86% | 47% |
| SPY | 794 | 95% | +75% | 42% |
| QQQ | 778 | 96% | +98% | 50% |
| RUT (too few to compare) | 6 | 100% | +137% | 83% |
Calls and puts
Calls are alerts for a move up, puts for a move down.
| Type | Alerts | Rose above alert price | Median best move | Reached +100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calls | 1,698 | 97% | +89% | 48% |
| Puts | 1,183 | 96% | +80% | 45% |
What this does and doesn’t show
- It describes the past. Month by month, the median best move ranged from +75% to +100% across 10 months. None of that predicts the next alert.
- The high is a best case. A 1-minute high can be a single small trade, and the printed high on a cheap option is often above what a real sell order would get.
- The alert price is the entry. We measure from the price in the alert. A trader who fills a few cents higher starts behind, and on options that cost well under a dollar, a few cents is a large share of the price.
- These are our alerts, not all 0DTE options. They were chosen by our traders using a supply and demand method, so the results describe these alerts, not same-day options in general.
- No costs are included. Commissions, fees and bid-ask spreads all come out of real results.
See the next alert as it happens
Base Membership sends real-time SPX, SPY, QQQ and RUT options alerts with entry and exit targets, in our Slack community. Every alert goes into the public record, misses included.